According to Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of research, the chances of a Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) listing in the United States this year are even higher than a popular betting market’s optimistic forecast. In a recent post on the X platform, Sigel described the current forecast as "underpriced."
A Glimpse into Prediction Markets
Prediction markets work by allowing users to trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating dynamically based on expected outcomes. Polymarket, a popular cryptocurrency prediction platform, has been closely monitoring the odds of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025. As of January 1st, their forecast indicated an approximately 77% chance of a listing.
Industry Expectations and Trump’s Impact
The optimism surrounding a potential Solana ETF listing mirrors industry-wide expectations of more crypto ETF listings in the United States after President-elect Donald Trump’s November election win. Pro-crypto Trump expressed his desire to make America "the world’s crypto capital." This sentiment has led to increased hopes for favorable regulatory environments and, subsequently, higher chances of successful listings.
VanEck and 21Shares’ Plans
In June, VanEck and rival asset manager 21Shares sought permission from US regulators to list spot Solana ETFs. However, in August, the US Securities and Exchange Commission reportedly challenged their plans, citing concerns that SOL qualified as a security rather than a commodity.
The Grantor Trust Structure: A Potential Roadblock
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs – the only two types of cryptocurrency ETFs permitted to trade on US exchanges – use an atypical "grantor trust" structure typically designed for funds that passively hold a single type of commodity. Issuers have expressed concerns that proposed Solana ETFs may not be able to conform to this structure, which could hinder their success.
Trump’s Win and Its Impact on Crypto ETF Listings
Industry analysts see Trump’s presidential win as a green light for more than half a dozen proposed crypto ETFs waiting on regulatory approval to list in the US. Shortly after Trump’s victory in the US presidential race, Sigel reportedly said that the odds of the US greenlighting a SOL ETF in 2025 are now "overwhelmingly high."
Polymarket: A Leading Cryptocurrency Betting Platform
Polymarket is the most popular cryptocurrency betting platform, clocking nearly $2 billion in trading volume in December alone, according to data from Dune Analytics. During the US elections in November, betting platforms proved more accurate than traditional polling, forecasting not only Trump’s win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate.
Bettors’ Confidence in 2025
Bettors are wagering that 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets, with BTC and ETH hitting all-time highs and several new types of crypto ETFs listing in the US. The current forecast suggests an approximately 84% chance of a Solana ETF listing as of January 2nd.
The Potential Impact on Crypto Markets
A successful Solana ETF listing could have significant implications for cryptocurrency markets, particularly if it leads to increased institutional investment and further adoption of digital assets. As the industry continues to navigate regulatory waters, one thing is clear: the odds of a Solana ETF listing in the United States are higher than ever before.
Conclusion
Matthew Sigel’s optimism regarding a potential Solana ETF listing in 2025 is not unfounded. The industry-wide expectations and Trump’s impact on crypto regulations have created a favorable environment for listings. As Polymarket’s forecast suggests, the chances of a successful listing are higher than ever before. Only time will tell if these predictions become a reality.
Additional Sources:
Related Articles:
- Betting Markets Predict Bullish 2025 for Crypto
- The rise of prediction markets has provided a unique insight into industry expectations and trends.
- Favorable Listing Prospects
- Industry analysts see Trump’s presidential win as a green light for more than half a dozen proposed crypto ETFs waiting on regulatory approval to list in the US.
Magazine: How Crypto Laws Are Changing Across the World in 2025
The changing landscape of cryptocurrency regulations is expected to have significant implications for the industry. Stay tuned for updates and insights into the evolving world of crypto laws.
